The Big Picture

Historical cycles. Current position. Probabilistic future.

CURRENT MARKET OUTLOOK

Cycle phase: Late expansion

Most likely phase

Expansion

Next 90 days

Next transition

Distribution

Estimated window

Model confidence

Moderate

Based on validation

Current Cycle Phase: Late Bull

62% Complete

Historically 70-85% of total cycle duration

62%

Bitcoin (BTC)+2.4% (24h)

$68,430

24h L: $67,19824h H: $69,662

Next Key EventHalving

Bitcoin Halving ~ 324 days

20 Apr 2028 (est)

Block subsidy cut to 1.5625 BTC

Altcoin Season Probability

68% (Next 6-12m)

Phase 3: ETH rotation underway

68%

Bitcoin All-Time & Projection

LOG SCALE

Model prediction (median)

Possible range (25-75%)

Extended range (10-90%)

Bitcoin Cycle Phases(2011 – 2030+)

Accumulation Bull Run Distribution Bear Market Projected

Accumulation

Bull Run

Distribution

Bear Market

Accumulation

Bull Run

Bear Market

Accumulation

Bull Run

Bear Market

Accumulation

Bull Run (Current)

Distribution

Bear Market

Accumulation

Next Cycle (Projected)

Key Events & Catalysts

Transmission channels and macroeconomic drivers affecting model probabilities

2024Halvings

4th Bitcoin Halving

Block subsidy reduced to 3.125 BTC; historic supply shock anchor.

Impact details

2024–2025Macro

Global Liquidity Shift

Central banks enter easing cycle; global M2 expansion synchronizes.

Impact details

2025Regulation

US Regulatory Clarity

Comprehensive digital asset market structure & banking custody approval.

Impact details

2026Macro

Institutional Mandates

Tier-1 sovereign wealth funds and corporate treasuries allocate 1-3%.

Impact details

2028Predicted

5th Bitcoin Halving

Subsidy drops to 1.5625 BTC; annual issuance falls to ~0.4%.

Impact details

2029–2030Predicted

Cycle 5 Expansion Peak

Projected multi-trillion market cap consolidation window.

Impact details

Cycle Position

62%

Late Bull Phase

Day ~380 of current cycle

Cycle 1 (2012):367 days

Cycle 2 (2016):525 days

Cycle 3 (2020):546 days

Price Targets (BTC)Q4 2025 – Q3 2026

Conservative$95,000

Base Case$130,000

Optimistic$220,000

Altcoin Season Outlook68% Prob

Phase 3 Transition: Ethereum rotation underway as ETH/BTC forms double-bottom.

Mid-Cap Breadth: Top 50 90-day outperformance index at 64/100.

Historical Lag: Alt peak typically follows BTC ATH by 45 to 75 days.

Scenario Explorer3 Scenarios

Bull Case

$3.2T (+140%)

Base Case

$1.8T (+45%)

Bear Case

$0.8T (-35%)